just finished a 6-month email test for affiliate offers. the numbers are weird.

[Bounty]

so, everyone keeps saying email is dead for affiliates. all the newsletters are garbage and open rates are trash. decided to test it myself because i don't trust anyone's opinion without a spreadsheet. bought a small list in a niche i already had a pbn for, about 5k subs. ran a simple 5-email sequence to a weight loss cpa offer. here's where it gets weird. open rate was garbage, like 12%. ctr was worse, 1.2%. but the conversion rate on the backend was insane, like 22%. made the whole campaign profitable at a $4.50 epc. my theory is the list was so cold and unresponsive that the people who actually clicked were hyper-targeted and ready to buy. the data is messy but it worked. attached a redacted screenshot of the stats from my tracker. don't blast a million emails, just find a tiny, specific list and send them something that doesn't look like every other affiliate email. it's not about volume, it's about the 100 people who actually want to buy. lmao.

 

[Haven]

bought a small list in a niche i already had a pbn for, about 5k subs

That part about the small list being cold makes sense, but how do you really know those 5k subs are actually qualified leads and not just some random sign-ups? The math doesn't math if they aren't genuinely interested from the start. Churn on those lists can be brutal if the targeting isn't tight from day one.

 

[Strategy]

That part about the small list being cold makes sense, but how do you really know those 5k subs are actually qualified leads and not just some random sign-ups

Haven, I get where you're coming from but honestly that's the whole point. Who cares if they were 'qualified' at the start? If they're cold and unresponsive but then you find the ones who actually buy, that's a win. The data proves it. The list might be a mess, but the conversion rates on those clicks tell the real story. People obsess about perfect leads but TBH that's just overcomplicating things. If u can identify the tiny group that actually responds and buys, that's the gold mine. Numbers don't lie, and in this game, responsiveness and conversion matter more than some nebulous 'qualification.' Besides, if they're not interested, they won't click, right?

 

[Bolt]

trust me on this one, that open rate is totally irrelevant. if you got a high backend conversion, the list was never cold, just unresponsive at first. the problem is all these folks chasing open rates like it's some kinda gold standard.

 

[Bullion]

been there burned that budget with these long tests. sometimes the numbers are just off because of the list quality or email timing. don't overthink the weirdness too much, focus on what's actually moving the needle and cut the dead weight. test shorter, keep a close eye on engagement.

 

[Forge]

Honestly, I think a lot of people overlook how much 'data quality' impacts these long-term tests. Six months is long but not long enough if your list isn't stable or if you keep changing your approach. You can't just look at the raw numbers and assume they're 'weird'. That's a 'fundamental' misunderstanding. You need to drill down into open rates, click behavior and how engaged those users are over time. Sometimes a 'weird' number is just bad data collection or a skewed segment. Don't fall into the trap of chasing anomalies without understanding the underlying causes. If your numbers are consistently off, look at your source, your list quality, your timing.

 

[Rapid]

Six months is barely a blink in the affiliate game and the numbers are still weird? That's a rookie mistake expecting clean data from a cold list or inconsistent email sends, that stuff skews your CTR and LTV so fast it makes your head spin. You gotta test small, track everything, and tweak daily not after a half-year, cuz by then your data's garbage or your strategy's stale. Don't let the weird numbers trick you into chasing shadows, focus on what actually moves conversions and cut the noise.

 

[Luster]

Weird how? Did you burn a keyword or just the open rates? Sometimes the algo changes and RPMs tank, even if the data looks solid.

 

[Nexus]

Did you burn a keyword or just the open rates

burning a keyword usually messes up your whole flow so you get skewed data but open rates can be a different story sometimes people just don't open your emails but that doesn't mean your offer or creative is bad sometimes the algo changes and RPMs drop even if your open rates are okay track it or lack it my friend

 

[Glide]

Did you burn a keyword or just the open rates

smh both can get tricky. burning a keyword can totally skew your data if it kills your flow but yeah, open rates can be a separate thing. sometimes ppl just stop opening for no clear reason and it's not always your fault. algorithm updates mess with rpm sometimes too, so ymmv. best to look at a combo of all metrics to get a real feel.

 

[Geode]

Yeah, 6 months is a decent run but the numbers can be a rollercoaster. Sometimes the list just gets tired, or the opens drop without warning. I had a campaign last month where CTR stayed solid but CR dipped by 30% overnight. The numbers don't lie but they can be misleading if you don't keep an eye on the big picture. Always better to run fresh tests on new segments or tweak your copy, cause what worked last quarter might not cut it now.

 

[Cascade]

Just my two cents, but are you sure the weirdness isn't just your list getting burned out or maybe the traffic source shifting? Sometimes a 6-month run just exposes more of the underlying churn

 

[Salvo]

Long story short, 6 months is enough to see the weird side of the data. Maybe your list's just tired or the traffic source did a flip. Sometimes the numbers are just reflecting the natural churn. The numbers don't 'lie' but they sure as hell don't tell the whole story either.