Okay i got my first full month of data from this one sports betting affiliate program and the conversion rates are all over the place like legit i cannot figure out the pattern at all. I know sports is volatile but this seems off. One geo gave me a 3.7% cr on ftds which i thought was solid then the next geo with the exact same traffic source and lp flow gave me 0.8% and that's not even the weird part the weird part is the higher cr geo had way lower average revenue per customer so my total earnings were basically the same as the low cr geo i am so confused. Context i am running a mix of paid search and some content stuff on a couple of sites traffic is tier 1 and tier 2 the offers are rev share plus a small cpa on first deposit i get the data feed daily from the affiliate platform. The platform itself is one of the bigger european ones not gonna name it here but they have a decent rep. What i cannot wrap my head around is the inconsistency like day to day the cr jumps from 1.2 to 4.5 and back down with no changes on my end am i getting shaved or is this just how sports betting works with the events calendar like maybe tuesdays are crap and weekends are gold but even that is not holding up in the data. Also my am is just sending me generic 'optimize your traffic' emails which is not helpful. Has anyone else dealt with this kind of volatility in cr for gambling specifically sports books and not casino is there some seasonality i am missing btw my tracking is on point using a third party tool so i doubt its my end. Or is the truth that these programs just have a ton of internal factors like bonus abuse detection or deposit methods failing that they never tell us about and it wrecks the reported conversion. Ymmv but i need to know if this is normal before i scale anything else up.

smh, yeah but that doesn't automatically mean the data is clean or consistent. even big platforms can have issues or even do some shady stuff like shaving CRs without you noticing. have you tried cross-referencing the data with other tracking tools or just looking at raw traffic/offer data? imo, that kind of volatility sounds like either tracking discrepancies or just how unpredictable sports betting is with the events calendar. I mean, 1.2 to 4.5 CR swings day-to-day? sounds like noise or maybe just traffic quality issues

Different angle: maybe it's not shady but just how wild sports betting can be, the volatility is kinda normal with event timing, injuries, odds swings, all that chaos.

lol, sounds like my old rollercoaster rides as a kid, but at least those had a little predictability. i swear, sports betting CRs are like trying to catch smoke, one day you're up, next day you're down, no real rhyme or reason sometimes. just gotta ride it out and hope the long game pays off. stay chill and keep testing, that's all we can do. peace out.

Haha, sounds like trying to catch lightning in a bottle or maybe just wrestling a greased pig. I remember my first few months too, cr jumps all over, and you're just left scratching your head. Sports betting CRs are like that, volatile, unpredictable, and sometimes totally random, especially with live events, injuries, odds swings, all that chaos. Imho, you're not getting shaved, just the nature of the beast, but yeah, seasonality and event timing definitely mess with the data.

been doing this 14 years and honestly cr in sports betting is way more predictable than people think, it's just the data feed, odds and timing that mess with it, not some shady sh*t.

Most people think sports betting CRs are wild but honestly they're just reflecting the chaos of live events, injuries, line shifts, all that. I did a test a while back, same geo, same traffic, same LP, and the cr still swung from 0.5 to 4+ without any noticeable change on my end. Seasonality?

Ever thought maybe the platform itself is playing games or just messed up data? I mean, with that kind of volatility, maybe your tracking is fine but the data feed's sus. Or maybe sports betting just isn't as predictable as ppl pretend.

just my 2 cents, do you think maybe the odds shifts or the timing of events cause these big CR swings? like, on weekends maybe more ppl betting or different lines and then midweek slow days? wonder if you're tracking the

Careful with jumping to conclusions, could just be different betting behaviors or event timings affecting CRs and ARPU. Sports betting is super volatile, especially with how lines shift and seasonality. Might be worth running some day

cRs in sports betting are all over the place cause of huge swings in traffic quality, offers changing, and seasonality. Plus, some promos just pull in dead leads or junk traffic that skews the stats. It's wild but kinda normal in this niche.

the real answer right here

Been doing this like 3 years and honestly CRs in sports betting can be so sus sometimes. One day it looks golden, next day its trash and you're just smh. I swear the traffic sources